Scott Rasmussen: Non-Partisan Pollster Extraordinaire!

Last weekend's Wall Street Journal interview profiled pollster Scot Rasmussen.

Rasmussen has taken a lot of heat of late for allegedly favoring Republicans and predicting a an anti-Democrat landslide in the upcoming Congressional elections.

Until reading the article, I was completely unaware of Rasmussen's key role in creating ESPN.

His polling work has drawn attention and criticism because of his use of automated dialers. But what the interview makes clear is that the theoretical debates are really moot. For example Rasmussen points to those who complain that he polls likely voters, not all registered voters. But, Rasmussen notes, the latter are who decide elections.

The article ends with these revealing paragraphs,

"With success has come criticism. Mr. Rasmussen has been attacked for alleged bias towards Republicans. He rejects such complaints, noting that because he focuses on likely voters his survey sample often includes more Republicans. "The key is whether I've been accurate," he says, noting that he was bitterly attacked by Republicans in 2006 and 2008 for showing several longtime GOP senators in trouble early on. Many of them lost.

"If I root for anyone to win, it's for our polls," he laughs. "If a Republican is ahead by two point, I want the Republican by two. If a Democrat is ahead by two, I want the Democrat by two."

Rasmussen makes such sense that it causes you to pretty much forget other polling organizations and just concentrate on his predictions.

Democratic Former Presidential Pollsters Lean Toward GOP Rout In November

Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell, former pollsters, respectively, for Bubba Clinton and Jimmuh Carter, co-authored an interesting editorial in the Wall Street Journal nearly two weeks ago.

Entitled The United States of Throw the Bums Out, they contend that merely being the other party will confer some benefits on Republican candidates in November.

For example, they write,

"Given the general climate of disaffection and mistrust with Democrats and Republicans alike, it's clear that the Republican Party's greatest asset right now is that elections are binary choices and voters tend to turn against incumbents."

The former pollsters note that a recent Washington Post/ABC News Survey found only 29% of Americans supporting their House member in the next election. That's lower than the 34% reading of this measure prior to the 1994 Republican retaking of the House.

Later in the piece, the authors note that voters are truly concerned with Wonderboy's piling on so much more debt, and that those wanting action on spending and deficits rose from 13% in January to 20% in May.

Health care, too, remains unpopular, as do House members who voted for it.

The bulk of the piece is informative and strikes a hopeful note for conservatives. However, at the end, being Democrats, even these two have to display willful ignorance of the Congressional Republican attempts to inject sanity into health care, economics and financial sector regulation. Instead, they merely declare that the GOP doesn't offer any clear "core principles," nor "bold new ideas."

This is simply untrue. But, if you're a lifelong Democrat, I guess you're going to ignore conservative ideas when you see them, and claim there's just nothing there. Perhaps because it isn't a fancy new social spending program with a large price tag?

New Polls On Voter Discontent with Big Government

Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center wrote a fascinating piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday concerning voter scepticism of Washington.

He cites many statistics in his editorial, mostly indicating how voters have become significantly disenchanted with and fearful of the federal government and its many social programs.

His last paragraph, however, really gave me pause,

"Nonetheless, antigovernment sentiment appears to be a more significant driver of possible turnout among Republicans and independents than among Democrats. Perhaps the most troubling for Democrats, independent voters who are highly frustrated with government are also highly committed to casting a ballot this year, and they favor the Republican candidates in their districts by an overwhelming 66% to 13% margin."

I have not seen such a lopsided pair of numbers reported anywhere else regarding the upcoming November elections.

If this number is correct, one can't help but see a Republican-controlled House next January.

Congressional Poll

I've written and mused about who runs for the US Senate or House, and why.

Enough of my views. What's yours?

Even though my readership on this blog is small, I'm curious as to which of the responses in the poll at the right best describes your own views.

Wonderboy's Fall In The Polls

Last week, Karl Rove, on a Fox News program, displayed a comparative chart of public opinion results for Presidents Carter, Reagan, Bush senior, GW Bush, Clinton and Wonderboy.

Guess what? The latter's poll numbers are now squarely in the middle of the pack. Ironically, Carter had the highest early poll numbers. And we all know where he ended up.

Despite the media love affair with the First Rookie, he's already fallen back to earth from the pantheon of the Gods where the liberal media has tried to install him since last summer.

Remember the faux Greek columns in Denver?

Anyway, as Rove pointed out, even his boss, George Bush, had higher ratings at this point in his infant administration.

So much for change that the public wants. Or the strict view that everybody must get behind a new President and want him to succeed.

More on that in my next post.