Congressional Majorities: Now Mooted?

As a way of kicking off the New Year, I decided to create this blog, in order to record some of my evolving political observations, insights, and discussions with friends.

Top of mind currently is the relative powerlessness with which Nancy "San Francisco Nan" Pelosi holds the Speakership of the US House of Representatives.

As my friend Merritt and I agreed this morning, it takes a 290 seat position by either party to have a veto-proof majority. This means that a Speaker with less than that majority, or a 145 seat plurality, cannot wield real "power." S/he is essentially the chamber's legislative calendar manager. Add to this that many of the freshman Democratic Representatives were recruited, and elected, precisely because of their 'middle of the road' positions, and the liberal Speaker from the Bay Area has a serious leadership and credibility 'challenge.'

Further, Merritt and I agreed that, from today's, 31-seat plurality, 233-202, neither party is likely to gain the veto-proof majority for many years, absent some calamity of Depression-era magnitude. The Senate is even moreso stuck in neutral.

These are new times for US Congressional politics. Only 15 seats, or so, need change hands to change Speakers in 2008. And the Democrats still are saddled with the Louisiana Representative, William Jefferson, who is almost sure to be indicted for whatever led to the piles of cash found in his office freezer. Figure that's good for a 10 seat loss.

Add another 10-15 for Nan's futile attempts to enact her San Francisco liberal agenda, and you have a 5-seat Republican plurality in 2008. That is to say, with only 16 Democrats needed to leave for the Speakership to flip once more, that's not a stretch in two years' time.

The bottom line, I think, is that neither the Senate, nor the House, is likely to see anything resembling the gigantic Democratic majorities and pluralities of the mid-1960s. Rather, I suspect that the American electorate has intuitively figured out how to place both parties in a position of coalescing their centrist members to forge pragmatic policy, while both party's extremists will now be seen as the liabilities they can be, when power is so near to the grasp of both the Republicans and Democrats.

It's a good thing, really. Nan, in spite of her desires, will be forced to either alienate herself from her party in the House, or repudiate her own prior stands on many issues, to get legislation passed.

Should be an interesting two years ahead.