Rick Perry's Presidential Bid

I've seen an interview or two with Rick Perry recently, as well as some punditry regarding his prospective presidential bid. I can't honestly say I'm convinced his candidacy would be well-received, nor that I'm particularly enthused by it.

First, there's the obvious liability Perry has as another Texas governor running for president. Whether you liked George W, or not, it's fair to say that one wonders if voters really want another Texan in the Oval Office so soon after the prior one.

Perry's values seem laudable. Texas has created more jobs during the past decade than any other single US state. Perry and the state's legislature have succeeded in crafting an operating environment conducive to businesses, including the landmark 'loser pays' tort lawsuit reform.

However, Perry's viewpoints don't seem to be under-represented in the current field of declared GOP candidates. And while Perry was successful on many fronts as governor, Texas is more conservative than, say, Minnesota, so it's unclear whether his experiences in Texas will actually be reproducible with the US Congress.

Then there's the red herring of secession. I'm not personally clear on just exactly what Perry has said on the topic, but I know, in the media, he's linked with threats of such actions, and that's bound to hurt his credibility.

All that said, however, governors have tended to do better in presidential campaigns since Ford's loss than any other single source of candidates. And, in that sense, you'd think Perry would be preferable to Bachman.

But what I don't know, offhand, is how Perry polls versus other GOP presidential candidates with the nation's independent voters. That, to me, is the key.

No conservative is going to vote for the lying Wonderboy in 2012. Even some Democrats won't. So the margin of victory is going to rest with the independents. Choosing a GOP candidate unpalatable to the independent center will be a mistake.

So, for me, the question is how Perry appeals to those independents in about six months.